Over the last month the UK government has faced allegations of multiple parties and gatherings held at 10 Downing Street while the country was subject to strict lockdown restrictions. Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson admitted attending an outdoor party at his residence in 2020, which prompted an inquiry led by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant, to establish the nature of these meetings and an investigation from the London Metropolitan Police to assess if these alleged parties were in potential breach of the law.
Regardless of whether the PM or his staff were in breach of restrictions at the time, these allegations have triggered a rapid decline in public support for Johnson. According to a survey by Politico, voting intentions for the Conservative party have fallen from 51% at the start of the pandemic to 32% at the time of the latest poll, the worst result since Johnson won the Conservative party leadership in July 2019.
Will Boris leave?
Despite the uproar over the allegations, Johnson remains a strong figure with Conservative Party voters. A recent YouGov poll showed that despite the fact that over 60% of the general population think he should resign, 47% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election and over 70% of those who intend to vote Conservative believe he should remain as PM.
A further complication is that Johnson’s opponents do not have a strong candidate they can rally around as a potential replacement. Figures such as Liz Truss, Foreign Secretary, and Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, are among those sometimes proposed as potential replacements. Both have been among Johnson’s closest allies and prominent members of his cabinet.
Implications for policy
A potential change in leadership is not expected to trigger a change in economic policy. Questions have been raised over Johnson’s lack of judgement for allowing and participating in these gatherings, but not over his flagship policies. In summary:
- Even if Johnson resigns as PM, the UK’s post-Brexit policies are unlikely to be reversed in the short term. The UK trade deal with Brussels was approved by the House of Commons in December 2020 by 521 votes to 73.
- On 30 January, Johnson and Sunak confirmed the planned increase in the National Insurance tax will go ahead in April 2022, despite the opposition of backbench Conservative MPs. The UK budget deficit has declined thanks to strong revenues from corporation taxes and increased National Insurance receipts as the economy reopened in 2021. Even if betting odds are correct and Rishi Sunak takes over as the next PM, the appointment of a new Chancellor would not have implications on taxes.
- Regardless of a change in leadership, the Conservative party will also face the difficult task of rebuilding voter support in constituencies that feel abandoned by Johnson’s post-Brexit plans. Promoting economic development in the poorest regions of the country has been a key challenge.
Conclusion
Johnson has urged MPs to wait for the outcome of the Metropolitan police investigation, rejecting calls for him to resign. Regardless of him remaining as PM or not, it is clear his image has been tainted by the allegations that he did not abide by the rules his government was imposing on the rest of the population. However, Johnson is no stranger to controversy and is known for his ability to defy political gravity. The coming weeks will be key for his future.