Insights

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US Inflation Comment

Yesterday’s US CPI release was much stronger than expected with headline inflation (measured as the year-on-year % change in the CPI) at its highest since September 2008 and core CPI inflation (ex food and energy) the highest since 1996. This has bolstered fears about a return to the stagflationary conditions of the 1970s which saw the unpalatable combination of high unemployment and high inflation coexist for a number of years. Rising commodity prices, supply chain problems (such as for semi-conductors), declining global trade and commercial rigidities resulting from Covid restrictions are all cited as reasons why we should be concerned about the rise in inflation being more than transitory.

EFG extends its partnership with Team Malizia to 2026

Setting sail for a ‘race we must win’

Covid, Brexit and UK-EU trade

How has UK - EU trade developed during Covid and following the end of the Brexit transition period? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at the data. The main conclusion is that after weakness during the pandemic and in the immediate aftermath of the end of the transition period, trade has recovered substantially, but not fully.

How credible is the Hong Kong peg?

The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) peg to the US dollar (USD) is regularly called into question. While the risk in principle is in either direction, concerns have focussed on the possibility of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) being forced to let the currency weaken beyond 7.85 HKD/USD. Is there actually reason to be concerned?

Singapore’s successful monetary policy turns 40

Managing monetary policy in a small open economy is never easy. EFG’s Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s successful “crawling peg” regime, which this year turns 40.