Insights

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All change in the UK: massive Labour gains despite limited vote share Investment Insights • MFN

All change in the UK: massive Labour gains despite limited vote share

Today is a momentous day. It is not just that for the first time in 14 years the UK will have a government led by the Labour Party, but also that the scale of the victory is unusual. While the results have yet to be finalised, according to exit polls and results so far it looks as if the Labour Party will have won the most seats of any single party since at least the last Blair victory in 2001.* Out of 650 MPs, around 410 are expected to be affiliated with the Labour Party. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray shares his thoughts, offering perspective on the outcome and its implications.

Daniel Murray

2 min read
Deciphering the Fed Investment Insights • MFN

Deciphering the Fed

The FOMC meeting on 20th March delivered few surprises. However, this is in contrast with the highly uncertain build-up to that meeting that saw rate expectations gyrate wildly. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray discusses the outcome of that meeting and the Fed’s decision-making process more broadly. A simple framework is proposed for thinking about how the Fed assesses whether or not to change policy, contingent on the two explicit elements of its mandate: inflation and the state of the labour market.

Daniel Murray

2 min read
A rule of thumb for the US labour market Investment Insights • Infocus

A rule of thumb for the US labour market

The monthly US labour market report (The Employment Situation) is one of the most closely-watched statistical releases and markets can experience dramatic shifts dependent on the data that are published. However, there is a vast amount of information contained in the report so it can be difficult to know which data to focus on. Furthermore, the numbers can be volatile from month-to-month. It is therefore useful to think about the longer-term characteristics and to view each release in that context.

Daniel Murray

4 min read

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