Insights

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Stefan Gerlach

Investment Insights 02 août 2022

Preliminary GDP data signals slowing US economy

With growing concerns that the US economy is slowing and may be sliding into recession, Thursday’s release of second quarter real GDP was eagerly awaited by commentators.

Stefan Gerlach

5 min read

Investment Insights 20 juin 2022

The SNB raises interest rates

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach and Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato look at the SNB’s (Swiss National Bank) surprise decision to raise interest rates.

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

Investment Insights 14 juin 2022

How certain are financial markets about US interest rates?

Market commentators often have strong views about the outlook for interest rates. Many are now expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by half a percent at its next several meetings. But how certain should we be on the outlook for interest rates?

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

Investment Insights 31 mai 2022

Inflation across the eurozone

Why has inflation risen much more in some countries in the eurozone than in others? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach explores this issue.

Stefan Gerlach

5 min read

Investment Insights 25 mai 2022

US CPI Inflation: volatility and weights

At long last, the US inflation rate appears to have peaked, but at a much higher rate and much later than anticipated. Why have these large forecasting errors been made and what now is the outlook for inflation? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at these issues.

Stefan Gerlach

5 min read

Investment Insights 09 mai 2022

Misunderstanding long-run inflation expectations

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at long-run inflation expectations and notes that they depend on short-run inflation expectations. Using the Michigan Survey of 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations as an illustration, he shows that the entire rise in 5-year expectations is due to the rise in 1-year expectations. There is no reason to conclude that the public expects inflation in the future to be higher than in the past.

Stefan Gerlach

5 min read

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Insights

Preliminary GDP data signals slowing US economy

The SNB raises interest rates

How certain are financial markets about US interest rates?

Inflation across the eurozone

US CPI Inflation: volatility and weights

Misunderstanding long-run inflation expectations

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