Insights

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Financial variables are more uncertain than you think Investment Insights • MFN

Financial variables are more uncertain than you think

Financial variables are more uncertain than many investors recognise. That message is worth recalling at the present juncture where both short-term and long-term interest rates are seen as close to their peaks. While many commentators may expect both to decline slowly, history suggests that they may move by large amounts in either direction in the coming months. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at historical data for three-month and 10-year Treasury yields to show just how difficult they are to predict.

Stefan Gerlach

2 min read
US inflation easing continued in September Investment Insights • MFN

US inflation easing continued in September

US inflation data for September confirmed the downward trend in core prices, reducing the risk of an increase in interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 01 November. However, inflation remained high due to housing and energy prices. In this Macro Flash Note, senior economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the factors that will drive consumer prices in the coming months.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

3 min read
Are high oil prices sustainable? Investment Insights • Infocus

Are high oil prices sustainable?

Even before the attack on Israel on 7 October, the oil market was tense. The price of WTI crude oil has risen almost 40% in just a few months, exceeding USD90 per barrel. This reflects fears that production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia will lead to a shortage of crude oil on the market. In this Macro Flash Note, GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the prospects for the price of oil.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

3 min read
Middle East tensions Investment Insights • MFN

Middle East tensions

Events in the Middle East over the past few days have highlighted just how fragile the situation remains in that part of the world and it is understandable that this has dominated the media. There has been much written on the situation and there is little value to be added in terms of reportage. Established media sources have connections on the ground and provide almost real time information on how the situation is developing. However, as investors we need to look through the undeniable human tragedy to the potential impact on the global economy and markets. Daniel Murray provides some observations in this Macro Flash Note.

Daniel Murray

3 min read
Argentina: on the verge of another crisis? Investment Insights • Infocus

Argentina: on the verge of another crisis?

Argentina is again in a deep economic crisis. Annual inflation is over 120%, the consolidated fiscal deficit is likely to surpass 10% of GDP and activity is expected to contract by 3% in 2023. The candidates in the coming Presidential election propose very different economic plans. In this edition of Infocus, economist Joaquin Thul looks at the roots of Argentina’s crisis and the risk of yet another default.

Joaquin Thul

4 min read

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