Insights

Trends, news, analysis and insight brought to you by our network of global experts.

Investment Insights 20 abril 2022

The return of inflation

The Russia-Ukraine war, the impact on commodity prices and a new Covid outbreak in China are among the key uncertainties facing the global economy. Higher inflation is a universal concern, but the policy reaction is far from uniform.

Mozamil Afzal

6 min read

Investment Insights 14 abril 2022

US CPI inflation surges

With the war in Ukraine pushing up energy, metal and food prices, US CPI inflation surged in March. The CPI for All Urban Consumers increased by 1.2% over the month versus 0.8% in February. Year-on-year, the index rose 8.5% (7.9% in February).

Stefan Gerlach

6 min read

Investment Insights 13 abril 2022

Yield curve inversion, recession risk and equity returns

Many commentators see the inversion of the US yield curve between 10 and 2-years as a bad omen for the economy and equity markets. In this Macro Flash Note, GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the performance of US GDP and equity markets during previous periods of yield curve inversion since the 1950s.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

3 min read

Investment Insights • MFN 11 abril 2022

Surprise output cuts reveal OPEC+’s red lines

On 2 April, several OPEC+ countries announced cuts to oil output targets, to take effect from 1 May. Oil prices surged on the news but remain well below the peaks seen after Russia invaded Ukraine. In this Macro Flash Note, GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the outlook for the oil market and concludes that the oil price rebound is unlikely to last.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

3 min read

Investment Insights 04 abril 2022

Why is Swiss inflation low?

Inflation has surged to levels not seen in decades due to rising commodity prices, supply chain bottlenecks and tight labour markets. These factors apply to most developed countries, but not to Switzerland where inflation remains low. In this edition of Infocus, GianLuigi Mandruzzato compares Swiss inflation to that in the US and the eurozone and draws some policy implications.

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

4 min read

Investment Insights 31 março 2022

Portugal: The outlook looks bright

The outlook for the Portuguese economy is good. With a low unemployment rate, political uncertainty resolved by the recent elections and with fiscal transfers from the EU, at the beginning of the year growth was forecast to be strong. That said, the underlying weaknesses of the Portuguese economy remain. EFG’s chief economist Stefan Gerlach and senior economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato take a closer look.

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

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Insights

The return of inflation

US CPI inflation surges

Yield curve inversion, recession risk and equity returns

Surprise output cuts reveal OPEC+’s red lines

Why is Swiss inflation low?

Portugal: The outlook looks bright

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