Insights

UK economic outlook in a changing policy environment

After 15 years of Conservative Party governments, the Labour Party looks likely to win the next UK general election. It aims to bring a pro-business and pro-EU approach to Downing Street. At the same time, falling inflation and wage growth will allow the Bank of England (BoE) to start cutting interest rates later in 2024. In this Infocus, Economist Joaquin Thul explains the reasons behind the improved outlook for the UK economy.

Supercore and core inflation in the US

Strong supercore inflation in March was a factor that caused financial markets to reassess their expectations about US interest rates. In this edition of Infocus, Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach and Senior Economist GianLuigi Mandruzzato look at the differences between supercore inflation as measured by the CPI and the PCE indices. The implications for future inflation are investigated.

World in flux – a conversation about global flows of wealth and the rise of Asia

At a recent EFG conference, geopolitical strategist and international bestselling author Dr. Parag Khanna shared his insights on how mass migration is accelerating the movement of wealth around the globe. He discussed how multiple geopolitical conflicts are prompting people to seek a safe haven − for themselves but also for their wealth. Parag also talked about the rise of Asia – in his words “the biggest story in world history” – explaining how it is not only the future that is Asian but also the present, as this vast region already accounts for the majority of the world’s population and GDP. Turning to the next generation, he highlighted three core values – mobility, connectivity and sustainability – that unite young people worldwide.

BoE keeps rates on hold and signals potential cut in the summer

The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% at its meeting on 9 May, with the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) adopting a more dovish tone as two members voted for a rate cut. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Joaquin Thul provides a summary of the key points.

Transforming construction: The building blocks for a low-carbon future

The Fed: More hawkish than before, less hawkish than feared

As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on 1st May although an adjustment was made to the balance sheet policy. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray provides an overview and discusses the implications and outlook.