Election miscalculation
Having secured victory in the LDP Presidential election on 27 September, Shigeru Ishiba became the new party leader and Prime Minister of Japan. In a previous Macro Flash Note, we speculated that since a lower house general election was due to be held by 31 October 2025, it was reasonable to expect a snap general election to be called by the new Prime Minister in Q4 2024, taking advantage of Party Presidential momentum into a nationwide vote.1
Indeed, this proved to be the case as Ishiba dissolved the lower house on 9 October, setting the stage for a 27 October general election. As the dust settles from last weekend’s vote, it is clear this move was a miscalculation.
The LDP won 191 seats in October’s election, 67 less than it held heading into the vote (see Chart 1). In addition, its junior coalition partner, Komeito, won 24 seats, 12 less than it held before the election. This means the coalition is 18 seats short of the 233 required to have a majority in the lower house.