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Financial variables are more uncertain than you think Investment Insights • MFN

Financial variables are more uncertain than you think

Financial variables are more uncertain than many investors recognise. That message is worth recalling at the present juncture where both short-term and long-term interest rates are seen as close to their peaks. While many commentators may expect both to decline slowly, history suggests that they may move by large amounts in either direction in the coming months. In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at historical data for three-month and 10-year Treasury yields to show just how difficult they are to predict.

Stefan Gerlach

2 min read
US inflation pressures continue to abate Investment Insights • MFN

US inflation pressures continue to abate

Great care must be exercised when commenting on the CPI data for July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that headline inflation was 3.2% year-on-year (y/y) and core inflation was 4.7%. (Using seasonally adjusted data, headline inflation was 3.3% and core inflation was 4.7% y/y.) Since headline inflation was 3.0% in June, it is easy to conclude that inflation pressures intensified.

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

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