Insights

Trends, news, analysis and insight brought to you by our network of global experts.

Stefan Gerlach

Investment Insights 11 marzo 2022

Oil prices and why 2022 is not the new 1974

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief economist Stefan Gerlach explains why the oil price increases observed in recent weeks are less worrisome than those observed in 1974 when the world economy was ravaged by the first oil shock.

Stefan Gerlach

4 min read

Investment Insights 09 marzo 2022

The New York Fed’s index of supply chain disruptions: An update

The New York Fed published earlier this year an index of global supply chain disruptions. Last week it updated the index for January and February 2022. EFG Chief economist Stefan Gerlach provides a summary.

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

Investment Insights 28 febrero 2022

The war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting

How has the war in Ukraine impacted the outlook for interest rate increases in the US? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG Chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at how market expectations have evolved.

Stefan Gerlach

5 min read

Investment Insights 21 febrero 2022

The Geography of the Global Interest Rate Cycle

With investors wondering how monetary policy will evolve in the US and other major economies, it is easy to miss that the global interest rate cycle has already turned and the interest rate increases show a strong geographic pattern. EFG’s chief economist Stefan Gerlach explains in this Macro Flash Note.

Stefan Gerlach

6 min read

Investment Insights 14 febrero 2022

Supply chains and US inflation

For some time, consumers around the world have been affected by shortages of goods, from basic necessities to microchips. At the same time, concerns about inflation have grown. EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at the relationship in the US between supply chain disruptions and inflation.

Stefan Gerlach

6 min read

Investment Insights 04 febrero 2022

Connecting the Fed’s dots

At quarterly meetings, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are asked for their views on the future evolution of the US economy and the participants’ views on the Fed funds rate are represented in a ‘dot plot’. EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach looks at how these dots can be interpreted.

Stefan Gerlach

4 min read

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Insights

Oil prices and why 2022 is not the new 1974

The New York Fed’s index of supply chain disruptions: An update

The war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting

The Geography of the Global Interest Rate Cycle

Supply chains and US inflation

Connecting the Fed’s dots

Stay ahead of the curve

Discover more

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