The world has been through enormous change in recent years, starting with the Covid crisis that began in 2020, soon followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that, in turn, set off a sharp rise in oil and commodity prices. The ensuing rate hiking cycle was one of the sharpest in history and, more recently, has been accompanied by an escalation of tensions in the Middle East to levels not seen since the 1970s. These events are highlighted because they are important in terms of setting the scene for the outlook over the next 7-10 years.
We expect slowing trend growth around the world, a return to more normal inflation dynamics and greater disparity between the economic performance of countries and regions. De-globalisation is expected to continue with an increasingly fragmented global trade network that will weigh more heavily on those countries and regions more dependent on exports for growth.
Finding the right asset allocation for an investor therefore remains critical to achieving long-term investment goals. Our Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) are an important part of this process, helping to build and define robust strategies in line with your risk appetite. As such, we set out our long-term return expectations across a broad range of markets and asset classes. The time horizon for our long-term market assumptions is 7-10 years and provides:
- Equity market assumptions
- Fixed income assumptions
- Currency and Commodity assumptions
- Private Market assumptions
We hope that this CMA document provides you with a framework to help you navigate and fulfil your long-term investment goals. Please do also refer to our Outlook 2025 to delve deeper into some of these enduring themes.
Download the full edition of our Capital Market Assumptions publication here.
Please also find a link to EFG’s Outlook 2025 here.