Insights

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It’s not over yet for the Fed Investment Insights • MFN

It’s not over yet for the Fed

In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray comments on yesterday’s release of the latest “Personal Income and Outlays” data from the US. This included inflation estimates in the form of what are known as Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflators. The measure of inflation that uses the core (excluding food and energy) PCE deflator is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, so what happens to it is important for thinking about the future path of policy.

Daniel Murray

2 min read
China’s Impossible Trilogy Investment Insights • MFN

China’s Impossible Trilogy

Significant optimism followed the post-covid reopening of China’s economy at the end of last year but subsequent economic developments have been disappointing. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray highlights the challenges China faces in trying to balance three different sets of objectives – growth, deleveraging and geopolitics - and how this is dampening the prospects for the economy.

Daniel Murray

3 min read
Consumer sentiment: a lagging indicator Investment Insights • MFN

Consumer sentiment: a lagging indicator

The most recent release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey data saw the headline number dip slightly, comprised of an increase in the Current component to the highest since October 2021 offset by a marginal decline in the Expected component. Nonetheless, the headline number remains in an upward trend, having bottomed in June last year. The strength of the number is sometimes cited as a reason to be optimistic about the outlook for consumption and, by association, US equities. However, what do the statistics tell us about the relationships between consumer sentiment survey data, equity market performance and measures of personal consumption? Daniel Murray explores these relationships in this Macro Flash Note.

Daniel Murray

3 min read

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