![Forecasting real GDP growth using the term structure](/.imaging/mte/efg-revamp/547x300/dam/efg/insights/MFN/10-September-2020/MFN_GDP_364x508px.jpg/jcr:content/MFN_GDP_364x508px.jpg)
Forecasting real GDP growth using the term structure
The slope of the term structure – as measured by the spread between 10-year and 2-year yields or between 10-year and 3-month yields – is an important indicator of future economic activity in the US. But which interest rate spread is the most informative when forecasting future economic activity?