Insights

Trends, news, analysis and insight brought to you by our network of global experts.

Outlook for Brazil and Mexico still supportive for equities in 2024 Investment Insights

Outlook for Brazil and Mexico still supportive for equities in 2024

Following the outperformance of Latin American stocks in 2023, the outlook for next year looks more challenging. Slow economic growth and fiscal deficits will dominate the agenda again. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Joaquin Thul looks at the outlook for Brazil and Mexico for 2024 and how despite some domestic challenges, it remains positive for equities in Latin America.

Joaquin Thul

4 min read
Have interest rates peaked in the UK? Investment Insights • MFN

Have interest rates peaked in the UK?

Over the last few years, the Bank of England (BoE) has been viewed as more tolerant of inflation in comparison to other developed market central banks. Despite being one of the first advanced economy central banks to hike rates in the most recent cycle, the gradualist approach of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in slowly raising rates, differed from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that both frontloaded their monetary policy tightening (see Chart 1).

Joaquin Thul

4 min read
Argentina: on the verge of another crisis? Investment Insights • Infocus

Argentina: on the verge of another crisis?

Argentina is again in a deep economic crisis. Annual inflation is over 120%, the consolidated fiscal deficit is likely to surpass 10% of GDP and activity is expected to contract by 3% in 2023. The candidates in the coming Presidential election propose very different economic plans. In this edition of Infocus, economist Joaquin Thul looks at the roots of Argentina’s crisis and the risk of yet another default.

Joaquin Thul

4 min read
BoE reduces tightening pace and commits to maintaining a restrictive policy Investment Insights • MFN

BoE reduces tightening pace and commits to maintaining a restrictive policy

On 3 August the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25%. With annual inflation at 7.9%, the central bank is expected to raise rates at least twice more to encourage inflation to return to the 2% target. In this Macro Flash Note, economists Joaquin Thul and Sam Jochim look at the outlook for UK inflation and the implications for the BoE’s next steps.

Joaquin Thul

6 min read

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